The monetary event of the week has landed: meeting this Tuesday, September 22, 2026 in Rabat, Bank Al-Maghrib's Council decided to keep its key rate unchanged at 2.25%, at the close of its quarterly September meeting. An expected but meaningful decision, arriving just after the Casablanca Stock Exchange's worst week of the year and right before the 2027 finance bill takes the stage.
The Council in five numbers
Bank Al-Maghrib, September 22, 2026
The decision: status quo on rates
The central bank's Council renewed the refinancing rate at 2.25%, unchanged since June 2025. This status quo follows a phase of prudent tightening and then a pause, during which the central bank brought inflation under control without breaking the growth momentum.
The message is twofold:
- Inflation is no longer an immediate threat. At around 0.7% expected for 2026 as a whole, it is running clearly below the 2% long-term target.
- But normalization remains gradual. Bank Al-Maghrib projects inflation returning to 1.5% in 2027, pulled by domestic demand and the pension and subsidy reforms – a level that still does not call for abrupt tightening, but justifies vigilance.
Why did the Council choose the status quo?
Three reasons structure this choice:
- Contained inflation. Around 1.1% year-on-year in the second quarter per the HCP, then 0.7% expected on an annual average basis, prices remain under control. Food price tensions have eased and the effect of administered tariffs has been absorbed.
- An economy growing fast. GDP grew 4.6% in the first quarter of 2026 after 5% a year earlier, driven by an exceptional agricultural season (+18.4% value added), tourist arrivals up roughly 6% and dynamic public investment. Raising rates in this context would only have slowed a machine that is running well.
- Agitated financial markets. The MASI lost 5.49% in the week of September 14-18, closing at 17,592.46 points. In an environment of risk aversion toward emerging markets, monetary stability is a reassuring signal for investors.
What it changes for households
Loans: confirmed reprieve
Holding the key rate at 2.25% flows through to the average lending rates charged by banks. In practice:
- Mortgage loans: rates negotiated in recent months stay in the current range; no immediate increase in monthly payments for new applications.
- Consumer credit and overdrafts: rating caps are unchanged – a favorable signal for purchasing power at year-end.
- Business loans (SMEs): refinancing costs remain stable, in support of private investment.
Savings: passbook accounts stay modest
On the remuneration side, the status quo leaves passbook accounts and term deposits near historic lows. Savers seeking yield keep turning to bond and equity mutual funds – the former having benefited from falling bond yields, before September's stock market correction came to remind everyone what risk means.
The monetary and budget calendar
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| December 15, 2026 | Next Bank Al-Maghrib Council meeting (last of the year) |
| October 2026 | Tabling of the 2027 finance bill |
| October - November 2026 | Q3 earnings season for listed companies |
| End of December 2026 | Vote on the 2027 finance bill |
The next decision window therefore only opens in December: until then, the central bank will watch underlying inflation, the behavior of bank credit and the first measures announced in the 2027 budget.
The pointed question: what if inflation comes back?
Bank Al-Maghrib projects a rebound to 1.5% in 2027, driven by domestic demand and the expansion of social spending (generalized AMO health coverage, pension reforms). Two channels could speed up that movement:
- Domestic demand, if growth confirms its above-4% pace and the labor market tightens.
- Budget measures, notably public tariff or indirect tax increases that could accompany fiscal consolidation.
Even in that scenario, the 2% target would only be marginally threatened: the central bank's credibility and the structure of the Moroccan economy (low exchange-rate pass-through, well-anchored expectations) argue for a gentle trajectory. The real issue for 2027 will be less the level of rates than the transmission of financing toward productive investment.
Frequently asked questions
What is Bank Al-Maghrib's key rate in September 2026?
On September 22, 2026, Bank Al-Maghrib's Council kept its key rate at 2.25%, unchanged since June 2025. It is the rate at which Moroccan banks refinance themselves with the central bank; it influences all rates in the banking system.
Why didn't Bank Al-Maghrib cut rates?
Because the economy is growing above 4% and inflation, while low today (0.7% expected in 2026), is projected to rise to 1.5% in 2027. A premature cut could fuel future tensions; the status quo preserves room for maneuver.
When is Bank Al-Maghrib's next meeting?
The Council's next meeting is scheduled for December 15, 2026 in Rabat. It will be the year's final monetary policy decision, delivered after the vote on the 2027 finance bill.
What does this status quo mean for my mortgage?
Bank lending rates, partly indexed to the key rate, stay at their current levels: no immediate increase for new loans or renegotiations. It is a favorable window to finalize a real estate or business project.
What is the link with the Casablanca Stock Exchange decline?
September's stock market correction (MASI at 17,592.46 points on September 18) amplified the context of caution, but the central bank's decision is primarily guided by inflation and growth. That said, holding rates steady sent a stability signal to investors at the end of a rough week.
Finance Morocco Help
Editorial Team
The Finance Morocco Help editorial team produces free, practical financial guides for Morocco.
