At its 23 June 2026 Board meeting, Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM), Morocco's central bank, voted to keep its key interest rate unchanged at 2.25% – the fifth consecutive decision to hold. The Bank forecasts that the economy will grow by around 5.2% in 2026, with inflation contained near 1.5% before edging up to roughly 2.1% in 2027.
This article explains what the central bank decided, why, and what it concretely means for Moroccan households (mortgages and savings), businesses (the cost of borrowing), and the dirham.
The decision: 2.25% again
After cutting the rate through 2024 to support the post-drought recovery, BAM has now held the key rate steady at 2.25% across successive meetings. The June 2026 decision was widely anticipated by analysts, including BMI/Fitch Solutions, which expects the rate to remain on hold through 2026.
The reasoning is straightforward:
- Inflation is back under control. After the surge of 2022-2023, prices have stabilised, and BAM sees inflation averaging 1.5% in 2026.
- Growth is robust. The economy is forecast to expand by roughly 5.2% in 2026, driven by both agriculture and non-agricultural activity.
- No urgent need to move. With inflation low and growth strong, the central bank judged that holding was the prudent course.
The 2026 macro picture
BAM's forecasts line up closely with other institutions, giving a consistent national picture for 2026.
| Indicator | 2025 (est.) | 2026 (forecast) | 2027 (forecast) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth | ~4.6% | 5.2% | lower (≈3.5%) | Bank Al-Maghrib (June 2026) |
| GDP growth (cross-check) | 4.6% | 5.0% | 3.9% | OECD Economic Outlook |
| Inflation | contained | 1.5% | ~2.1% | Bank Al-Maghrib |
| Key interest rate | 2.25% | 2.25% | on hold expected | BAM / BMI |
| Global growth | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% | BAM (June 2026) |
The headline message: Morocco is growing faster than most of its peer economies, while keeping inflation among the lowest in the region. The OECD, for its part, projects 5.0% growth in 2026 and 3.9% in 2027 – essentially confirming BAM's own numbers.
What the rate means for households
A stable 2.25% rate is, on balance, good news for Moroccan households.
Mortgages and loans
The central bank's key rate sets the floor for the rates commercial banks charge. With the rate held at a relatively low 2.25%:
- Borrowing stays affordable. Monthly mortgage payments and personal-loan rates remain close to current levels – no rate-hike shock to household budgets.
- A window to buy. For those considering a property purchase, financing conditions remain favourable. (For the taxes and fees on the purchase itself, see our 2026 property-purchase tax guide.)
Savings
- Deposit and savings-account rates stay roughly stable, reflecting the unchanged policy rate.
- With inflation at only 1.5%, the real return on savings is mildly positive – meaning cash held in the bank is broadly holding its purchasing power, unlike during the high-inflation years.
What the rate means for businesses
For companies – especially small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) – the central bank's stance matters for the cost of working capital and investment loans.
- Stable financing costs. A held rate means no surprise increase in the cost of bank loans, making it easier to plan investment and hiring.
- Support for the growth backdrop. With the economy forecast to grow by ~5.2%, businesses face a favourable demand environment. The stable rate is one ingredient that lets that growth translate into expansion rather than being eaten by higher debt service.
- Consistent with the wider reform agenda. The low-inflation, growing-economy context is the backdrop against which the 2026 tax reforms – the withholding tax (RAS) system, the two-rate VAT, and the corporate income tax – are being implemented.
The dirham and external context
BAM's June 2026 communiqué also flagged the global backdrop: world growth is projected to slow from 3.3% in 2025 to around 3.0% in 2026 and 2027. A softer global economy can weigh on Moroccan exports, tourism, and remittances, but the dirham's managed exchange-rate regime and the comfortable level of foreign-exchange reserves give the central bank room to keep policy steady.
What to watch next
BAM's next Board meetings will reassess the picture. The main upside risks to watch:
- Inflation surprises – if commodity prices or a poor agricultural season push prices up, a future rate hike becomes possible.
- The global slowdown – if world growth slows more than expected, it could dampen Moroccan exports and tilt the bank toward holding or even easing.
- Fiscal policy – the 2026 Finance Bill targets a further reduction of the budget deficit toward roughly 3% of GDP, supported by rising tax revenues from the broadening tax base.
For now, the central bank's message is one of cautious confidence: Morocco is growing, prices are stable, and there is no need to change course.
FAQ
What is Bank Al-Maghrib's key interest rate in 2026?
As of the 23 June 2026 Board meeting, the key interest rate is 2.25%, where it has been held for five consecutive decisions.
Why did Bank Al-Maghrib keep the rate unchanged?
Because inflation is low (around 1.5% forecast for 2026) and growth is strong (around 5.2% forecast for 2026). With prices stable and the economy expanding, the central bank saw no need to raise or cut the rate.
How does the key rate affect Moroccan mortgages?
The central bank's rate influences the rates commercial banks charge. With the rate held at 2.25%, mortgage and loan rates stay broadly stable, keeping borrowing affordable for households.
What is Morocco's GDP growth forecast for 2026?
Bank Al-Maghrib forecasts around 5.2% growth in 2026. The OECD projects a very similar 5.0% for 2026, then 3.9% in 2027.
Will interest rates go up or down next in Morocco?
Most analysts (including BMI/Fitch Solutions) expect Bank Al-Maghrib to hold the rate at 2.25% through 2026. A change would depend on inflation surprises or a sharper global slowdown.
Disclaimer
This article summarises Bank Al-Maghrib's 23 June 2026 monetary-policy decision and publicly reported macroeconomic forecasts for general information only. It does not constitute financial, investment, or borrowing advice. Loan and deposit rates are set individually by commercial banks and vary by product and borrower.
Salah-eddine covers personal income tax, salary calculations, and social security in Morocco. His goal is to make complex tax brackets and pay-slip deductions understandable for every Moroccan employee.
