Monday, September 28, 2026. While Casablanca digests the MASI's worst week of the month, another market is quietly turning: foreign exchange. The dollar is firming against the dirham at the open, 1 USD ≈ 9.62 MAD, versus roughly 9.35 in early September, and the euro holds steady around 10.99 MAD. Nothing dramatic yet in the daily moves, but the direction is clear: the dirham is starting to test the weak side of its band, and the week ahead could set the tone for the quarter.
The dirham this Monday, in five numbers
Mid-market rates, September 28, 2026
A quiet start to what may be a bigger move
The daily moves are small, the dollar gained barely 0.3% per session over the last three days, but the cumulative drift since the start of September now approaches 3%, one of the sharpest monthly slides of the year. The euro, for now, is the calm leg of the basket at 10.99 dirhams; the pressure is coming from the dollar side, exactly where the basket's 40% dollar weighting transmits it.
What 1 US dollar buys in dirhams
Early-September level vs the last three sessions, 2026
Why the dollar is gaining on the dirham
- US yields refuse to fall. The 10-year Treasury holding near 4.7% keeps global capital in dollar assets. For every emerging currency, the dirham included, that is a permanent headwind while it lasts.
- A widening rate gap. Bank Al-Maghrib kept its key rate at 2.25% on September 22 (our coverage), a sound choice with inflation projected at just 0.7% this year. But the side effect is an interest-rate differential that pulls the dirham toward the weak edge of its band.
- The energy bill. Brent around $95 a barrel means Morocco's importers need more dollars, more often, structural demand that reinforces every dollar-leg move.
- Equity outflows. A difficult Casablanca tape, with foreign investors reducing exposure, adds selling pressure on the local currency at the margin.
The euro leg: why it matters more than it looks
At 10.99 dirhams, the euro looks harmless. But this is the leg that touches Moroccan households most directly: remittances from Moroccans abroad are overwhelmingly euro-denominated, Europe sends most of the tourists, and the EU absorbs the bulk of exports. A euro that stays below 11.00 keeps those flows steady; a breakout above, as global dollar strength eventually spills into EUR/MAD, would immediately change the arithmetic for families and the tourism sector. The September 29 macro brief (read it here) frames exactly this global environment.
How the dirham's peg absorbs the pressure
The dirham is anchored to a basket of 60% euro and 40% dollar, with Bank Al-Maghrib publishing daily fixings and allowing the currency to fluctuate in a ±3% band around its central rate. A 3% monthly drift against the dollar does not break the framework, it uses it. And the ammunition is ample: reserves are projected at 502.8 billion dirhams by end-2026, about 5.5 months of imports (BAM's projections), with growth still expected at 4.4% this year.
Who should care this week
| Channel | What a firmer dollar (9.62 →) would do |
|---|---|
| Importers | Each $1,000 invoice already costs ≈ +270 MAD more than in early September |
| Exporters | A weaker dirham is a competitiveness boost for automotive, textiles and phosphates |
| MRE families | Calm for now (euro flat); a EUR/MAD breakout above 11.00 would raise transfer values |
| Tourism | Euro-area visitors unaffected at current levels, the risk is an over-firm dirham, not this |
| Savers | Inflation at 0.7% leaves room before pass-through becomes a concern |
In practice. A business importing $10,000 of equipment pays about 96,200 dirhams today, versus roughly 93,500 a few weeks ago, before freight. Hedging forward cover, even partial, is back on the agenda for any treasurer with dollar invoices and dirham revenues.
What to watch this week
- The daily BAM fixings, the pace of the drift within the band reveals how much adjustment the central bank is willing to allow.
- US data and Fed commentary, the dollar's direction is the single biggest variable for the dirham this quarter.
- Half-year earnings on the Casablanca exchange, better tapes usually mean calmer FX flows.
The bottom line
September 28, 2026 may be remembered as the Monday the dirham's slide properly began: nothing violent, but a dollar at 9.62, up almost 3% for the month, against the backdrop of 4.7% US yields and $95 oil. With reserves at five and a half months of imports and inflation near zero, Morocco can absorb this. Importers cannot. Watch the fixings.
Yassine follows the Casablanca Stock Exchange, Bank Al-Maghrib decisions and Morocco's macroeconomic indicators. He translates market moves into clear, practical takeaways for Moroccan investors and savers.
